Understanding the War in Lebanon
By Wissam Nasrallah
October 4, 2024
The article below represents a personal analysis by the author and does not reflect an official position of Thimar. Thimar is dedicated to declaring and demonstrating the unconditional love of God to all those in need, regardless of their social, religious, or ethnic backgrounds.
Author’s Note:
The goal of this article is to provide a framework for understanding the conflict, rather than offering a moral compass. (For that, you can refer to my Op-Ed from October 2023.) War is ugly. Belligerents often have their own interests that disregard human life and any notion of right or wrong. The true losers are always those who have nothing to do with these ruthless calculations. As Neville Chamberlain once said, “In war, whichever side may call itself the victor, there are no winners, but all are losers.”
As Christians, we are reminded that “we do not wrestle against flesh and blood, but against the rulers, against the authorities, against the cosmic powers over this present darkness, against the spiritual forces of evil in the heavenly places” (Ephesians 6:12).
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Many in Lebanon are enduring sleepless nights, their peace shattered by the relentless roar of Israeli jets and the deafening explosions raining down on Dahiyeh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, the Beqaa, and across South Lebanon. The skies are ablaze as displaced people flood the streets, schools are once again closed, and live images testify to the devastation. What once seemed confined to South Lebanon has now reached Beirut and many parts of the Beqaa.
In recent days, lives have been shattered, families torn apart, homes demolished, and futures erased. Each morning, the sun rises over a city grappling with the uncertainty of who has been lost and what remains standing. Nearly 2,000 people have been killed and just under 10,000 have been wounded in Lebanon since the conflict started last year, according to Lebanon’s Health Ministry.
I was among those who believed that a full-scale war in Lebanon was unlikely. I even wrote an article titled, “Why Hasn’t There Been a Full War in Lebanon Yet?” that I planned to publish before the sudden change in the dynamics of the conflict. The reasoning was simple: if either side genuinely wanted total war, it likely would have occurred by now. Numerous opportunities arose, yet the conflict seemed contained within a fragile tit-for-tat framework, governed by unwritten rules—often referred to as “red lines.”
However, Israel has consistently tested and breached Hezbollah’s red lines by targeting civilians and Beirut’s southern suburbs—Hezbollah’s stronghold—without triggering full-scale retaliation.
Hezbollah’s proclaimed intent was to open a “support front” for Hamas, forcing Israel to fight on two fronts. This strategy aimed to stretch Israel’s military, economic, and social capacities, pressuring Israel to reconsider its aggressive stance toward Gaza. However, given the extreme humanitarian situation in Gaza, it is clear this strategy has failed.
Hezbollah has paid a steep price. Many fighters, including most top senior commanders, have been killed, and key military assets destroyed. The series of targeted assassinations within Hezbollah’s ranks suggests significant infiltration by Israeli intelligence. It seems Hezbollah did not anticipate the conflict would drag on this long or that Israel would escalate so aggressively.
Iran, meanwhile, remains primarily focused on preserving the Islamic Republic. Facing economic collapse and domestic unrest due to international sanctions, Iran is unlikely to take actions that jeopardize its own survival. Its network of proxies across the region, from Yemen to Iraq, including Lebanon and Syria, has been used largely as a deterrent.
The past two weeks, however, have marked a turning point for Lebanon and the region. Israel seized a strategic gap, exploiting it, though, at great human cost, with many civilian casualties. From a series of pager explosions to the shocking assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah’s longtime leader, who had achieved near-mythical status among Shia Muslims, the cracks in the Iranian ‘axis of resistance’ are showing.
Iran’s missile strikes on Israel this week seem more focused on saving face and boosting the morale of its allies while attempting to restore deterrence and credibility without escalating into a full-scale war.
Israel, too, faces its own set of challenges from the displacement of residents from northern Israel and the economic strain it faces as well as its isolation on the international scene. Furthermore, the prolongation of the conflict seems to favor a politically weakened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The recent violent air campaign in Lebanon may have provided him some respite internally but at a great cost internationally. That cost will grow higher as Israel moves forward with what it is calling a limited ground incursion into Southern Lebanon and so-called precision strikes across the country.
For the past year, diplomacy seemed to play a crucial role in preventing a full-scale war. Yet, as one now erupts, it appears that most diplomatic efforts are falling on deaf ears, similar to what happened in Gaza. Though the US and other Western countries like France continuously call for a cease-fire, Israel seems set on pushing its advantage.
In this darkness, one truth shines bright: we are called to serve. In this moment of despair, we must rise, turn toward our neighbors in Lebanon, extend our hands, and let the light of Christ shine through us. Lord, grant us the strength to persevere, the compassion to cross divides, and the resolve to be agents of hope where it seems all hope is lost.